Can Famine Be Avoided?

The statement delivered recently by Sir Ben Smith in the British House of Commons on the state of food in the world was not merely a warning of difficulties and hardships to come, but a frank exposition of the gravity of the situation and of the urgent need for works of rescue, if a famine of vast extent is to be averted.

Britain, which suffered from the restriction of food consumption as much as the rest of her allies, or more, during the war years, is today liable to a further cut in her food rations — rations which have already reached the lowest limit, sufficing only to keep body and soul together.

Mr. Truman hastened to support the British Minister of Food, and counseled the world to follow the courses he would lay down with a view to improving this menacing situation. The Dominion governments took similar measures.

This state of affairs cannot be overcome by individual efforts and the cutting of individuals' rations: the problem is a world shortage of foodstuffs, and the whole world must bear its effects; it is right and just that all nations should stand ready to bear their share of the burden.

It is estimated that supply falls short of demand by the equivalent of five and a half million tons during the first six months of this year. This does not mean that the shortage is confined to wheat: rice falls short of need by a million and a half tons, while sugar's deficiency was reckoned at a like quantity, but the poor state of the crop in Cuba will increase the amount lacking; nor is it to be hoped that Java will come forward to fill this gap, even should heaven favor her with abundant rain, because of the political crisis prevailing there. Vegetable oils are likewise seriously wanting, and the situation has been aggravated by the failure of the whaling operations.

The situation may appear paradoxical in the eyes of the many who suppose that the end of the war should make the state of food better than it was in the years of fighting. What, then, are the causes of this reversal?...

The first and most important cause is the failure of the harvest in the exporting countries on a scale without precedent. Australia was swept by a wave of drought and barrenness the like of which she had not seen for generations. Cyclones blew over India and the rains were withheld from her, shattering her hopes of gathering a good crop. Indeed, demands for grain have gone up from countries which until only yesterday were exporting countries, such as North Africa. And the rice crop today falls 10 percent below its prewar level, owing to the reduction of the area sown to it in the countries of the Far East.

The second cause is the commitments which the Allies and the relief and rehabilitation organization have taken upon themselves toward the defeated countries. It is worth examining the condition of the realms that suffered the ravages of war and were plundered by the Germans. Europe was ordinarily an importer of food, but during the war she was forced to cut herself off from imports and rely on her own resources, which kept declining until it is no longer to be hoped that she can produce half her needs this year. And the imports Europe requires do not stop at food alone, but include also the machinery and implements necessary for the production of foodstuffs, for there is a grievous shortage of fertilizers, of animals, cattle, and poultry, and of machines. Insufficiency was the principal factor in the failure of the crops of lands that need heavy fertilizing before they will bear. Germany's production of fertilizer before the war was great, but it was cut off when the fighting stopped.

Nor is Europe the only region complaining of the scarcity of fertilizer; it is a world crisis. This critical situation can be overcome by resolute measures in which all the nations must join, and these measures include, first of all, the reduction of consumption rations.

The present shortage of food in Europe and the Far East is the greatest emergency to confront the United Nations since the end of the war, and it demands the mustering of efforts and resources in peace as was the case in the days of war, when all joined hands to fight a common enemy. And the countries of the Middle East, which received assistance in ridding themselves of their food problems during the war years through the means of the Middle East Supply Centre, ought now to take their part in this effort.